By Emily Miller

It’s the most wonderful time of year. Let’s get cracking.

Best Picture:

At the beginning of summer, we were all presented with the biggest showdown in cinema history. Yes, that’s right, I’m referring to the illustrious phenomenon that is Barbenheimer. It’s so big it even garnered it’s own Wikipedia page. “Barbenheimer” refers to the two biggest films of the year, released on the same fated day, Barbie and Oppenheimer. As we approached Awards season, it seemed like these two films were destined to square off again for the biggest prize in cinema, the Academy Award for Best Picture. While both films were nominated for Best Picture, there was a clear favorite by the Academy, Oppenheimer, while Barbie inexplicably became the unwanted step child. Oppenheimer became the most nominated film with 13 nominations, Barbie only was nominated for 8, with giant snubs in the Best Director and Actress category, as well as a confusing switch of categories for it’s screen play (Being forced into Adapted Screenplay instead of Original, but more on that later.) With Barbie down and out, there’s only one clear winner for this award, and it’s the unstoppable epic that is Oppenheimer. It’s everything the Academy loves to reward, a sweeping epic biographical film that is incredibly relevant. It’s also helmed by one of the greatest filmmakers and biggest names of this generation, Christopher Nolan. If Oppenheimer wins, it will be, as shocking as this sentence is, Christopher Nolan’s FIRST Oscar win. Yes, this prolific filmmaker has never won an Oscar despite putting out some of the best films in the last 25 years including Memento, The Prestige, The Dark Knight, Inception and Dunkirk. This is his moment. If there is an upset, don’t look to Barbie which has lost so much momentum. Instead, look to the delightful The Holdovers. It’s got half the run time of Oppenheimer, has some wonderfully funny and feel good moments, features the most likely winner for Supporting Actress, and a career best turn by Paul Giamitti. It’s also directed by beloved filmmaker Alexander Payne.

Will Win: Oppenheimer Could Win: The Holdovers

Best Actress:

This is the closest race to call in the major acting categories. The competition is between two wonderfully talented and vastly different performances, Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon and Emma Stone in Poor Things. All of the major precursor awards to win before the Oscars have been evenly divided amongst these ladies. Gladstone took Best Actress in a Drama and Stone took Best Actress in a Comedy at the Golden Globes, basically splitting that award. Stone took the Critics Choice Award and the BAFTA for Best Actress. (Important to note that Gladstone was not nominated at the BAFTAS.) Gladstone took the SAG Award for Best Actress. So who gets it? The edge goes to Gladstone. She gives a quietly disarming performance saying so much with so little. She holds her own against onscreen husband Leonardo DiCaprio. And perhaps most importantly, if Gladstone wins, she will become the first Native American actor to receive an Oscar. When accepting the Golden Globe, she spoke in her native Blackfeet, the first time a Native American language had ever been spoken at an Awards show, creating a powerful moment in representation. Stone already has wracked up three acting nominations and one win at the Oscars, essentially already having her moment. This one belongs to Gladstone. However, if voters think Gladstone’s performance is too quiet, look to Stone for the upset, who delivered one of the louder performances involving a physical transformation.

Will Win: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon Could Win: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Best Actor:

Two incredible actors give the performances of their lifetime in two very different films nominated for Best Picture, Cillian Murphy and Paul Giamatti. The edge does go to the brilliant Irish actor, Cillian Murphy. Simply put, he is Oppenheimer. He anchors this massive 3 hour epic, bringing humanity to the controversial man who created the atomic bomb. Despite being an acclaimed actor, Murphy has shockingly never been nominated for an Oscar. He’s won the Golden Globe for Drama, the BAFTA and the SAG award for Best Actor. It’s his time. However, Paul Giamatti hits new heights in his career with his loveable turn in The Holdovers. He won the Golden Globe for Comedy, and the Critic’s Choice Awards. And the advantage he has, is that his film is a much shorter feel good dramedy. Everyone loves Giamatti, and he’s never won an Oscar either, despite being previously nominated.

Will Win: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Could Win: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Best Supporting Actress:

This is the safest category to predict. Queen Da’Vine Joy Randolph has this category on lock. She has won every major award including the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTAS and SAG award for her incredible supporting turn in The Holdovers. If Paul Giamatti is the star, then Randolph is the beating heart of that film, turning in a powerful performance as a grieving mother. If there is an upset (there won’t) look to Emily Blunt for a wonderful turn in the Best Picture front runner, Oppenheimer. She’s a beloved actress in this community, and is picking up her first nomination despite her impressive resume.

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers Could Win: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Best Supporting Actor:

At first, no one was sure who would emerge as the front runner of this incredibly stacked category. The Robert Downey Jr won the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor and the category settled down. He’s won every major award before this, and everyone loves a good comeback story. Downey was recognized as one of the best up and coming actors in the 90s with his star turn in Chaplin. But drugs and other things derailed his career, and he was left a laughing stock after multiple stints in rehab. But he worked hard, got clean, started building up his resume and eventually became the anchor to the biggest franchise in movies currently, the Marvel cinema universe. After becoming the biggest box office draw in film, he has turned that success into critically acclaimed films like Oppenheimer. He’s earned this moment, and more importantly, Hollywood wants him to have it. If there is an update, look to Ryan Gosling’s scene stealing villain, Ken doll. He sings, he dances, he acts. It’s a little bit of everything.

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr, Oppenheimer Could Win: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Best Director:

Will Win: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer Could Win: Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

I know this is hard to read, but Christopher Nolan has never won an Oscar. Yes, you read that correctly. Christopher Nolan, despite being one of the most prolific filmmakers, has yet to be rewarded with Oscar gold. Until now. He is the only man who could secure hundreds of millions of dollars from a studio to create a three hour epic about the man who created the bomb, and have it be successful. Everyone wants to see him get this. This is his time. If there is some Oppenheimer fatigue, look to Academy darling, Yorgos Lanthimos for his work in creating an entirely new world in Poor Things.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Barbie was set to win the Best Original Screenplay category, until it was inexplicably forced to switch categories, more on that below. There is still a lot of love for the movie, and it has a chance to win this category, but being unceremoniously shoved here at the last minute, has made it difficult to secure the front runner status. The front runner before Barbie came in was American Fiction and despite the category shakeup, has not lost that edge. It’s won every major award, and it’s the only chance this film has for a win. But if there are enough upset Barbie voters, look to it for the upset.

Will Win: American Fiction Could Win: Barbie

Best Original Screenplay:

This category was locked up and down for Barbie. It won every major precursor award during the season. Yet when it came time to nominate Barbie for best Original screenplay, the Academy said, nope. They claimed that it wasn’t original since there was close to fifty years of source material based around the beloved doll. Most people cried fowl, as you can’t adapt a screenplay from a doll. But the Academy said too much source material existed to allow it to remain in this category. This left Best Original Screenplay, wide open. It’s really anyone’s guess as to who will rise to the top, but I’m giving the edge to the French film Anatomy of a Fall. It won top honors at the Cannes and after being unceremoniously left out of the Best International Film category, it’s best chance to win an award is here.

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall Could Win: The Holdovers

Best Cinematography:

Will Win: Oppenheimer Could Win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Costume Design:

Will Win: Barbie Could Win: Poor Things

Best Film Editing:

Will Win: Oppenheimer Could Win: Anatomy of a Fall

Best Makeup & Hair:

This is another category where the two Best Picture nominees are the front runners to win this category, Maestro and Poor Things. Though Poor Things won the BAFTA in this category, I’m giving the slight edge to Maestro who has the maestro of the make up world nominated, Kazu Hiro. He’s been nominated five times in this category for his work with prosthetics and has won this award twice before. This category is also the only chance Maestro has to win a single award. Fans of the film should throw all of their weight behind it here. However winning the BAFTA in this category is tough to ignore and if filmmakers want to reward a film more in the running for Best Picture, look to Poor Things for the win.

Will Win: Maestro Could Win: Poor Things

Best Production Design:

This is one of the toughest races this year. Two Best Picture nominees are squaring off, Barbie and Poor Things. Both created two completely wild and different worlds. I’m giving the slight edge to Poor Things. It won the biggest indicator for this category, the BAFTA for Best Production Design. Voters have also shown that they aren’t enthusiastic about Barbie. However, these two films really are neck and neck, and this category is one of the few awards that Barbie has a shot at winning. If those fans want to secure a win for the beloved meeting, this is one of the categories they could arguably do so.

Will Win: Poor Things Could Win: Barbie

Best Original Score:

With a haunting violin score, Oppenheimer‘s score enhanced the Best Picture front runner, without taking away from the action. Ludwig Göransson the film’s composer already has an Oscar in this category and has won all the major precursors including the Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTAs. However, if voters are feeling a little sentimental, look to Robbie Robertson’s score for Killers of the Flower Moon. The indigenous composer was a long time collaborator and friend of Martin Scorcese who finished the score shortly before dying.

Will Win: Oppenheimer Could Win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Song:

It’s the Sophie’s Choice of Barbie versus Barbie. Do voters want the emotionally impactful “What Was I Made For” by the red hot Billie Eilish, who at the age of 22 has the chance to become the youngest person to win two Academy Awards. (She previously won this category for her Bond song “No Time to Die”) Or do voters want a hilarious power ballad that roasts the patriarchy in “I’m Just Ken”? Typically Academy votes for the emotional song, which gives “What Was I Made For” over “I’m Just Ken.” However if there is a voting split, perhaps “It Never Went Away” from beloved film American Symphony for the upset.

Will Win: “What Was I Made For” Could Win: “I’m Just Ken”

Best Original Sound:

This is one of those technical categories where the front runner for Best Picture has an advantage. It’s the biggest and loudest film for sound. It’s also designed by Kevin O’Connell who is one of the biggest names in the Sound world, with a ridiculous 22 nominations in sound. However this category is not a lock. There are two other Best Picture nominees in this category, Maestro and Zone of Interest. Maestro is a film where music is heavily featured and Zone, a Holocaust film with the subtle sounds of war throughout. It should still go to Oppenheimer, but if there’s Oppenheimer fatigue, look to either of those films for the win.

Will Win: Oppenheimer Could Win: Zone of Interest

Best Visual Effects:

Typically this category is easy to predict. Usually, there is one Best Picture nominee in this category and they win because they are considered more prestigious than the other nominees. However, this year there are 0 Best Picture nominees in this category, which has left it wide open for any film to win. Surprisingly, I’m giving the edge to a film called Godzilla Minus One. It harkens back to the glorious days of Godzilla movies coming out of Japan. It’s expertly made, and is a little bit of an underdog in this category being made for an especially small $15 million dollars. It’s well crafted and hits all the nostalgia feels. But if voters are looking for something a little more serious, look to The Creator a complicated epic sci fi.

Will Win: Godzilla Minus One Could Win: The Creator

Best Animated Feature:

Usually Best Animated Feature is an easy category to predict, but this year proves to be one of the more competitive races. Voters are stuck between Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron. I’m giving the slight edge to Spider Man. It’s the number 3 grossing film of the year, and it’s a critical darling. This sequel cleaned up at the PGAs and the Annie Awards (The children’s entertainment awards equivalent to the Oscars.) With it’s precursor, winning this award a few years prior, it’s the safest bet. However if filmmaker are looking for something a little more artistic, The Boy and the Heron. It’s by legendary Japanese filmmaker Hayao Miyazak, with an added boost as it’s rumored this is his last film. (Though that’s how I ended up paying a lot of money at the New York Film Festival to see his The Wind Rises because that was *also* rumored to be his last film.)

Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Could Win: The Boy and the Heron

Best Documentary Feature:

Best Documentary Feature has become much more difficult to predict since the Academy opened up voting outside of the documentary filmmakers branch. It’s hard to predict what the average voter looks for in documentaries. Typically they vote for the feel good movie, but this year the front runner, American Symphony wasn’t even nominated, and all five films nominated feature depressing subject matters. So how do we figure this out? By looking at last year’s winner for this category, Navalny. That documentary featured Putin’s biggest adversary, Alexi Navalny. This shows the academy has a strong anti-Putin faction, which has put 20 Days in Mariupol at the top of the list. It’s the harrowing look at the first 20 days of the Russian siege of the Ukrainian city of Mariupol. Factor in, that Congress has continuously held up aid to Ukraine and that Alexi Navalny died, most likely by Putin, while Oscar voting was still open, leads to this documentary becoming the front runner. However if the subject matter proves too dark, look to the lightest film in the bunch (though still depressing) Bobi Wine: The People’s President for the upset.

Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol Could Win: Bobi Wine: The People’s President

Best International Feature:

The story for how The Zone of Interest became the front runner of this category is a fascinating look at international politics. The original front runner for this category was Best Picture nominee, Anatomy of a Fall. It won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, which is the French equivalent of Best Picture at the Oscars. It also received a ridiculously long standing ovation, and was the audience favorite. In order to be considered for Best International Film at the Oscars, each country can only send in one film to be considered. Yet when France submitted it’s film to represent the country, it didn’t chose Anatomy of a Fall, instead sending The Taste of Things which failed to secure a nomination. So what happened? Director and writer of Fall, Justine Triet, when accepting her Award at Cannes, used her acceptance speech to bash current French President Maccron for his controversial new pension law. France then mysteriously chose the lesser recognized film to represent France, and was shut out of a nomination. Anatomy of a Fall got the last laugh though, because it scored a Best Picture nomination despite being an international film.

So with the heavy hitter out of the category, the front runner shifted to the other international movie that snuck into the Best Picture category, The Zone of Interest. It also doesn’t hurt that it won the Runner Up Prize at the Cannes Film Festival. If there is a weird upset, look to Society of the Snow as it was streamed and marketed by heavy weight Netflix. It’s also nominated for Best Makeup and Hair which shows voters are watching this movie.

Will Win: The Zone of Interest Could Win: Society of the Snow Should Have Been Nominated: Anatomy of a Fall

Best Animated Short:

The short categories are notoriously difficult to predict. There are no specific indicators as to what should win, and with these categories open to all voters, it’s historically unpredictable. If Academy voters don’t have enough time to watch every film nominated, these are some of the categories where people might vote off of name, and not actually watching. This is why I’m giving the advantage to WAR IS OVER!: Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko. Who doesn’t love The Beatles? This sweet animated film about two soldiers on opposite sides playing a game of chess via carrier pigeons in WWI, with the music of John Lennon and Yoko Ono underscoring. The short categories typically reward unknown up and coming filmmakers, and rarely have a recognizable name. With John and Yoko in the title, and the executive producers being Sean Lennon and Yoko herself, it’s hard to ignore. If voters are looking for something a little more traditional, look to the hand drawn Letter to a Pig which features the Oscars’ favorite subject matter, the Holocaust.

Will Win: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko Could Win: Letter to a Pig

Best Documentary Short:

This is a race between two very different films, The ABCs of Book Banning and The Last Repair Shop. The ABCs of Book Banning is a sharp rebuke of book banning in schools and libraries throughout the country. The Last Repair Shop is a look at the dedicated individuals repairing broken instruments for the L.A. School District. I’m giving the slight edge to The ABCs of Book Banning because of it’s relevancy. It’s a swift rebuke of the growing book banning trend in this country, and it would be a first time win for Sheila Nevins who is nominated at the ripe age of 84, which is very sweet. However feel good movies are hard to compete against, and if voters are looking for a lighter fare, look to the The Last Repair Shop.

Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning Could Win: The Last Repair Shop

Best Live Action Short:

As previously mentioned these categories are ROUGH. So when there is a name recognition built in, it’s easier for voters who have skipped watching the shorts to vote for. This year the short with an insane amount of star power is The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. It stars a ridiculous cast with Benedict Cumberbatch, Ben Kingsley and Ralph Fiennes and is based off of Roald Dahl’s whimsical short story. And oh yeah, it’s written and directed by the beloved filmmaker Wes Anderson. It also made a splash at the Venice Film Festival. It’s the easiest film to vote for. However, if voters resent someone like Anderson winning in a category meant for young and upcoming filmmakers, look to Red, White and Blue for the upset. It’s a gripping film about abortion, which has never been more topical with the appeal of Roe V. Wade.

Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar Could Win: Red, White and Blue